Europe Summary and Highlights 12 Oct
Thin morning, sandwiched between a Japan and a US holiday
IMM data shows euro post-2020 short, but not extreme
A pretty thin morning, as you would expect sandwiched between a Japan and a US holiday and with little else on the schedule. Dollar generally slightly on the firm side, with cable showing the best signs of some basing and outperformance.
Main weekend developments are around the US-Russia dealings, with Trump following up the diesel deal with a declared energy ceasefire with Ukraine (although latter didn’t know about it and awaits the details). On the flip side though, still concerns over Houthi attacks in Saudi. Oil continues to consolidate, Brent front month mid $100-110, diesel was off the highs.
IMM data shows market moved to its shortest euros since 2020, although not extreme by long term standards (around -1stdev). Yen longs the only exception to the broad dollar positioning. Sterling finding some better basing and outperformance from its short positioning.
Background focus remain on France-led euro developments and on US CPI this week.