North American Summary and Highlights 12 October
Overview - The USD was firm in a quiet day of trading, as was oil.
North American session
The USD maintained a firm tone in what was quiet trading during the partial US holiday for Columbus Day. There was no significant data but comments from Fed’s Hammack had a hawkish tone, though that is no surprise from her. The firmer USD tone was consistent with that of oil.
USD/JPY gains peaked near 158.75. EUR/USD slipped to 1.1160. EUR/GBP was weaker near .8450 but EUR/CHF stable near .9315. USD/CAD nudged up to 1.4280 from 1.4260 while AUD/USD slipped to .6960 from .6980.
European session
A pretty thin morning, as you would expect sandwiched between a Japan and a US holiday and with little else on the schedule. Dollar generally slightly on the firm side, with cable showing the best signs of some basing and outperformance.
Main weekend developments are around the US-Russia dealings, with Trump following up the diesel deal with a declared energy ceasefire with Ukraine (although latter didn’t know about it and awaits the details). On the flip side though, still concerns over Houthi attacks in Saudi. Oil continues to consolidate, Brent front month mid $100-110, diesel was off the highs.
IMM data shows market moved to its shortest euros since 2020, although not extreme by long term standards (around -1stdev). Yen longs the only exception to the broad dollar positioning. Sterling finding some better basing and outperformance from its short positioning.
Background focus remain on France-led euro developments and on US CPI this week.