Europe Summary and Highlights 31 August
The USD lost a little ground in Europe, as a mild correction to Friday’s USD surge.
Europe Session
Nevertheless, the USD tone remains constructive, with Warsh’s Jackson hole speech seen to mean a high probability of a September FOMC hike. USDJPY has also been stabilised multi day by U.S. Treasury Bessant appearing to suggest that JPY support is now up to Japan and the BOJ. GBP is seen to be a laggard with BOE Bailey at Jackson Hole suggesting that 2nd round inflation effects are still low from the Iran war and dampening BOE rate hike fears.
EUR/USD views are a little more mixed. Last week’s ECB monetary accounts reinforced expectations of a 25bps ECB hike on September 10 and some ECB board members pushing for a 3rd hike later in the year.
Asia Session
U.S. and Iran are back at it to point fingers. Over the weekend, another tanker was hit with sea mines and seems to have triggered the U.S. to launch fresh strikes towards Iranian military site. Such dejavu seems be going over and over again for the past quarter. Major equity indexes are definitely not a fan. AUD/USD is trading 0.04% higher at 0.7165 from broad USD softness. NZD/USD is trading 0.08% higher while USD/CAD slips 0.09% on higher oil.
After touching a session high at 160.19, USD/JPY has rotated lower to 159.78, trading 0.18% lower for Monday. The key drive came from rhetoric of U.S. Bessent and Fed's Warsh. They are signaling a somewhat conflicted message as they are on different end of the same team. Warsh hawkish comment drove the pair past 10 on Friday but over the weekend, Bessent's approval of JPY and potential BoJ policy has kept JPY hawks hopeful. Else, EUR/USD is up 0.09% and GBP/USD is up 0.06%.