North American Summary and Highlights 9 June
Overview - The USD corrected early losses after Trump stated Iran had downed a US helicopter.
North American session
The USD moved slightly higher through the morning before losing momentum in the afternoon, still up from the lows but little changed on the day. Early USD weakness was assisted by optimism from Trump about achieving a deal with Iran but the USD had already started to recover before Trump stated that Iran had downed a US helicopter and that the US must respond. This brought a bounce in oil and added to pressure that had already been building on equities, led by the tech sector.
USD/JPY advanced to 160.40 from 160.20 while EUR/USD erased earlier gains, returning to near 1.1540. EUR/CHF was stronger but EUR/GBP weaker. AUD/USD was weaker but found support above .70 while USD/CAD picked up to 1.3950 from 1.3920. AUD/CAD found support after a dip below .98.
US data was on the firm side of expectations. April’s trade deficit narrowed to $55.9bn from $56.6bn with March revised from $60.3bn. Later May existing home sales rose by 3.2% while April wholesale sales rose by 2.0%. Canada saw a C$2.72bn trade surplus in April, the highest since January 2025.
European session
Pretty quiet European morning in terms of news and price action.
While overnight saw a good risk bounce in Asia (Kospi +8%), and oil continues to slip back towards the recent range downside, following on from latest Israel-Iran cessation (-2%), FX is a little more cautious, consolidating rather than reversing the Friday breaks.
US short end yields sticking at the higher yield levels (2s still circa 4.15%, around the close for the last couple of days). S&P future around +0.4%.
AUD/USD checked by 0.7080 before backing off and EUR/USD holding to the 1.550~ area. Higher beta NZD holding on to the best gains from overnight.
German industrial production 0.4%m/m (mkt 0.5%). Trade balance EUR14.5bn (mkt 15.3bn).