Americas/Europe Summary and Highlights 19 June
Currencies traded in narrow ranges with only GBP holding onto its gains and the EUR losing some ground across the board.
Americas/Europe Afternoon
FX trading was subdued in the Americas and European afternoon, with the U.S. on holiday. Currencies traded in narrow ranges with only GBP holding onto its gains and the EUR losing some ground across the board – some focus on EU deficit criticism of France and Italy.
Focus for the coming days is on the BOE and SNB meetings Thursday, with no expectations for the BOE and a 60% expectations for a 25bps cut from the SNB. Views on GBP diverge, with some looking for further gains feeling that the BOE will not become more dovish but others feeling that the minutes will likely inflate expectations of an August cut. Meanwhile, SNB Jordan recent comments have left the market far from certain about a cut, though those that look for a cut feel it could produce some temporary softening of the CHF – safe haven flows over France political jitters are more important. European Session
European trading was subdued with the U.S. on holiday. GBP rose in early trading, with FX taking its lead from the money and bond market. The odds of an August BOE cut have been reduced, as the May CPI service inflation number eased less than expected and overshadowed the headline slowing to 2.0% Yr/Yr.
Elsewhere, the EUR was in focus, as the market awaits the EU commission review of budget plans and reports that up to 12 countries could be criticised including France. With the French opinion polls suggests that Macron party is likely to be in 3 place, French fiscal uncertainty is an issue being debated in the FX market as well.
Asia Session
The Japan May trade balance has come in less negative than expected with export beats but import misses. Export to China and U.S. have shown significant growth while EU sags. It should be read as a positive sign for Japan's second quarter economic growth. The resumption of expansion in import, though missed expectations, are a positive sign for private consumption. USD/JPY is trading unchanged at 157.84 as JGB yields outpaced their U.S. counterpart.
Regional sentiment is mixed with only the HSI in the green as The Hong Kong exchange now enable trading during severe weather condition. U.S. three major equity indexes. AUD/USD is trading 0.11% higher at 0.6663, NZD/USD is down 0.21% to 0.6131 while USD/CAD rose 0.02%. Else, EUR/USD is down 0.04% and GBP/USD is down 0.01%.