Preview: Due October 16 - U.S. September Industrial Production - Rebound from a weak August
We expect a strong 1.0% increase in September industrial production after flat August with manufacturing up by 0.6% after a 0.3% August decline. This would restore a positive trend after a weak month.
Manufacturing surveys generally remain clearly positive. September’s non-farm payroll showed a modest rise in aggregate hours worked after a strong August increase, but for production and nonsupervisory workers a bounce was seen from an August decline. The latter is probably more likely to act as a signal for September manufacturing output.
We expect a strong increase from utilities due to hot weather to lift overall industrial production ahead of manufacturing. We expect only a modest increase from mining.
We expect capacity utilization to rise to 77.0% overall from 76.3%, with manufacturing at 76.1% from 75.7%. The overall figure would be the highest since November 2023 and manufacturing the highest since May 2024.
