US Initial Claims remain very low but not a clear signal for October's payroll
Initial claims at 197k remain very low, down by 2k from 199k with last week’s number revised from 197k. Continued claims saw a modest upward correction of 17k, the first increase in five weeks, to 1.716k with last week revised to 1.699k from 1.701k.
Low levels of both initial and continued claims appear consistent with healthy payroll growth, though September’s non-farm payroll did not show the strength implied by the claims data.
For initial claims we are three weeks after the September payroll survey week and two weeks before the week October’s payroll will be surveyed. Continued claims cover the week before initial claims.
Last week’s continued claims level was the lowest since April 2023. The latest initial claims figure is the lowest since July 18 but this does not clearly imply a stronger payroll in October.
