Bangladesh Country Risk Rating

Bangladesh’s overall country risk rating remains at medium-high, with the risk of political violence at high. Though the February 2026 election delivered the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) a two-thirds parliamentary supermajority, reports of politically motivated killings still remain. The risk remains of further post-election violence, factional clashes and attacks on minority communities underscoring a volatile transition environment. Thus supply chain disruption is also rated at medium-high. Meanwhile, President Mohammed Shahabuddin resigned in July due to ill health and will be replaced within 90 days. Elsewhere, Myanmar has indicated that 300k Rohingya refugees could return from Bangladesh once political stability improves, which could reduce tension between the two countries. On the economic front, the IMF projects reasonable 4.7% GDP growth in 2026, while inflation is forecast to be 9.2% in 2026 but come down to 6.0% in 2027. However, the current account deficit in 2026 is expected to remain small, while the government debt/GDP ratio is forecast at a manageable 41.8% of GDP in 2026.