US Initial Claims remain very low, Continued Claims have fallen significantly
Initial claims at 197k after two weeks at 198k remain exceptionally low (last week was revised from 197k). Continued claims give a similar message, falling by 11k to 1.701m, extending a recent significant slide to reach their lowest level since 2023.
The latest data covers a week two weeks after that in which the non-farm payroll was surveyed in the case of initial claims, and one week after in the case of continued claims. Falling continued claims hints at job creation as well as low layoffs as suggested by initial claims.
We stick with a 100k payroll forecast, though if we based our forecast solely on initial claims we would be higher than that. Not all labor market signals are so positive, notably a weakening of labor market perceptions in the consumer confidence report. However most labor market signals remain healthy. ADP saw an improved rise of 90k in September, close to our payroll call.
