North American Summary and Highlights 28 July
Overview - Oil and the USD were slightly weaker, the latter led by EUR/USD.
North American session
The USD slipped in the North American morning, but saw some correction in the afternoon, seeing eventual losses modest. The USD’s movement was in line with that seen in oil. EUR/USD led the move, seeing highs above 1.14 before a modest correction. EUR/GBP was firmer near .8570 while EUR/CHF rose above .9325. GBP/USD and USD/CHF were little changed while USD/JPY returned to 163.85 after a seeing a low below 163.70. Movements in USD/CAD and AUD/USD were also limited.
June’s advance goods trade deficit of $101.5bn was down from $105.9bn in May but in line with consensus. A dip in July consumer confidence to 90.8 from 92.2 was slightly weaker than expected.
European session
Relatively contained European morning for FX, the market still looking to sit tight until the key Fed meeting later in the week. The dollar still retains it edge and EUR/USD is nearer 1.1350 than 1.14 now. There is definitely a very defensive mindset against hawkish surprise across both bonds and FX into the meeting.
CHF little changed on the morning but still inching out new 1yr+ lows vs the dollar. The SNB declined to comment on reports that it expects to keep interest rates unchanged until end 2027. CHF/JPY remains quite an interesting watch – a very slow rolling top for some months now.
Otherwise, NOK still on the back foot (- ½ %) with Brent down $2 ½ as it continues lower lows and highs so far on this move. AUD retains its slight overnight dip against the backdrop of the softer metals and tech weakness. Nasdaq future currently -0.8%.