Preview: Due May 23 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Looking close to a peak
We expect an April new home sales total of 665k, equal to the average of March’s stronger 693k and February’s weaker 637k. We believe a recent modest improvement in trend is close to a peak.
The NAHB homebuilders’ index continued to improve on its current sales index in April though the overall index slipped probably in response to rising mortgage rates in Q1. Generally recent housing sector indicators are mixed, though with some loss of momentum from recent positive data.
We expect slippage in prices on the month, the median by 2.0% and the average by 3.0% after respective gains of 6.0% and 7.4% in March. Despite March’s gains, yr/yr data will continue to present a subdued picture with the median rising to a 1.2% increase from a 1.9% decline, and the average marginally more positive at 1.6% versus 1.0% in March.
