Published: 2024-07-02T12:10:41.000Z
Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. May Trade Balance - Deficit to see a 23-month high
Senior Economist , North America
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We expect May’s deficit to increase to a 23-month high of $77.0bn from $74.6bn in April. This will extend a significant increase in the deficit from $68.6bn in March and suggest downside risk to Q2 GDP.
We expect exports to fall by 1.6% after a 0.8% increase in April while imports fall by 0.5% after a 2.4% increase in April. We expect goods data to be consistent with the advance report which saw exports fall by 2.7% while imports fell by 0.7%.
We expect services to show a 0.5% rise in exports and a 0.3% rise in imports, both correcting from marginal dips in April and restoring a positive trend in the services surplus after a modest dip seen in April.
