North American Summary and Highlights 2 November
Overview - Slippage in oil was the main story, which weighed on the USD.
North American session
After coming off its European lows the USD stabilized in North America, still slightly down on the day. USD/JPY remained below 158. EUR/USD settled near 1.12. EUR/CHF was heavy, slipping to near .916 from .92. AUD/USD slipped to test .70. USD/CAD held below 1.40.
October’s ISM manufacturing index was stronger than expected at 55.5 from 54.5, but September construction spending fell by 1.9% of a fall in private residential spending.
European session
A slight echo of last Monday as we start off with a bit of corrective/covering vibe, not quite turning fully into a squeeze yet. EUR/USD has recouped 1.12, alongside the bounce in tech stocks and with oil off and France spreads making less ‘noise’ (resting off the highs in the 160 region). USD/JPY also testing back into recent supply up to 158.
Nasdaq +0.8% ahead of Apple earnings, albeit only back up towards a re-test of last week's range break rather than back to stable. Oil has front months down a chunky $4 – 4 ½ on the back of reports that talks between Iran and Qatari mediators extend into a third day, with a proposal being discussed that would open the Strait in two days of an agreement with the US. Nymex looking back below $100.
Some reciprocal action on the FX side, which also extends to session pressure on the NOK, that is particularly exposed to liquidation in the event that a surprise positive scenario played out – US has seemingly been initiating more positively here of late, enmeshed too with US and Israel domestic politics. NOK/SEK and EUR/NOK both with 1%+ moves. Just final PMIs on the data side. EZ manufacturing revised to 52.7 from 52.4, UK stays at 52.8