Preview: Due June 20 - U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits - Neutral month within a slowing trend
We expect little change in May housing starts, where we expect a rise of 0.7% to 1370k, or permits, which we see unchanged at 1440k. This is likely to be a pause before renewed slowing.
Most housing sector signals have been pointing lower recently, but non-farm payroll details on construction were more positive in May after a weaker April, suggesting May’s data may outperform the underlying picture.
We expect starts to show a modest rise in singles after two straight declines while multiples show a modest rise after a steep April decline that corrected a sharp increase in May.
We expect permits to show a rise in multiples after two straight declines but a fourth straight decline in singles. The four straight declines in single permits will come after thirteen straight gains. Single permits tend to be consistent with underlying trend, which appears to have peaked.
