EUR flows: German data should help stabilise EUR

This morning has seen German industrial production come in a lot higher than expected at 1.5% m/m in November, while the German trade surplus increased much more than expected to EUR19.7bn, mainly due to weakness in imports. The production data may help bolster the EUR slightly, following the big decline in the volatile orders data seen yesterday. But the big German trade surplus is a red flag in terms of the threat of tariffs, so those concerns will remain and make it hard to see any significant EUR recovery despite the favourable yield spread movements in recent days.