Published: 2024-03-14T19:07:59.000Z
Preview: Due March 28 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q4 GDP - Revision seen marginally lower but still strong
Senior Economist , North America
1
We expect the third (final) estimate for Q4 GDP to be revised marginally lower to a still strong 3.1% from second (preliminary) estimate of 3.2%.
We expect downward revisions to retail sales, housing construction, inventories and net exports, the latter largely on a downward revision to the services surplus.
Upward revisions are likely to business investment, on private non-residential construction, and government, also on construction.
We expect final sales (GDP less inventories) to be unrevised at 3.5%, and final sales to domestic buyers (GDP less inventories and net exports) to be unrevised at 3.1%.
We do not expect any revisions to the price indices, from 1.6% for GDP, 1.8% for overall PCE and 2.1% for core PCE.