EUR flows: EUR marginally softer after German state CPIs

German state CPI data suggests that the national data later will be slightly below market consensus, with the y/y rate for the largest state, NRW, falling from 2.0% o 1.9%. While other states saw the y/y rates pick up, they were generally no more than 0.2% above the October data. This suggests that the national data will see a rise in y/y CPI to only around 2.1 or 2.2% rather than the 2.3% expected, with the HICP rate possibly rising to 2.5% from 2.4% rather than the 2.6% expected. This keeps some hopes of a 50bp ECB rate cut on December 12 alive, although at the moment this is still only seen as a 16% chance. EUR/USD is slightly lower in response, but markets are quiet with the US holiday.