Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Industrial Production - Two straight subdued months after a strong April
We expect an unchanged June industrial production outcome with a marginal 0.1% increase in manufacturing. This will be a second straight subdued month but still leaving a healthy Q2 given a strong increase in April.
June’s non-farm payroll showed a decline in aggregate manufacturing hours worked after a flat May, though with most manufacturing indicators still positive we expect a 0.1% increase in manufacturing output after a flat May. Output usually outperforms aggregate hours given productivity gains.
We expect a decline in mining after an increase in May, as implied by aggregate hours worked data from the sector in June’s non-farm payroll and possibly related to oil prices coming off their highs. This is likely to outweigh a modest increase in utilities after a modest decline in May.
We expect capacity utilization to slip to 76.1% overall from 76.2%, reversing a May increase, while manufacturing remains at 75.7% for a third straight month. The latter will remain the highest since September 2025.
