North American Summary and Highlights 25 August
Overview - The USD was slightly softer as oil prices moved lower, as did UST yields.
North American session
The USD took a modest step down early in the session with little subsequent movement. The move was led by the oil price and came before data that was on the weak side of expectations, August consumer confidence at 89.4 from 90.2 and July new home sales -10.5% to 607k, both the weakest since January.
USD/JPY was very stable near 159.25 but EUR/USD saw marginal gains to 1.1670 from 1.1660. EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF saw little change. AUD/USD saw only very marginal gains but USD/CAD slipped to 1.3830 from 1.3860. Canada detailed retaliatory tariffs that it will impose on the US.
European session
In an otherwise subdued morning, oil prices continuing to slip off recent highs, Brent front month around -$3 back below $90, having rolled over after filling the gap into $95 at the close of last week. Market tending to take a slightly glass half full view of sanctions (not seen terribly stringent), alongside recent reporting on oil slipping through, as less acute than other escalation, even if entrenched. At least, that is, until/unless Iran does retaliate as threatened.
That is seeing NOK also roll over after its strong run, off around ½ %. CAD interestingly fairly stable after the initial modest reaction to the weekend trade news. German data better than expected. August IFO business climate 88.8 from 86.6 vs mkt 87.2. German Q2 GDP revised to 0.3% from 0.2%, 1%y/y from 0.9%.