Morocco Country Risk Rating

Morocco, maintains its overall country risk rating of medium following the nearby geopolitical Iran war uncertainties. PM Aziz Akhannouch has announced he will not run in the upcoming 2026 election with the National Rally of Independents (RNI) most likely nominating Mohamed Chouki as the groups next leader. Political violence remains medium-high, while political interference remains medium, as expectations foresee the coalition government holding its position in the upcoming elections. Recent cooperation with Spain has strengthened as Morocco is showing its efforts in reducing illegal migration attempts into Europe. Even though routes for migrants are changing due to tighter controls, last year saw 6.4% fewer attempts made by illegal migrants trying to reach Europe. In terms of regional relations, however, Morocco’s relationship with Algeria remains tense following Mali’s recent show of support for Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara. The proposal would allow residents to elect a local legislative, executive and judicial authority, while Morocco would hold jurisdiction over defense and foreign affairs. The Polisario Front, heavily backed by Algeria, is seeking to end Morocco’s control of the Western Sahara and is pushing for a referendum that includes independence as an option. Relations with Europe - particularly France and Spain - have seen major improvement, as both countries have expressed support for Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara. The North African State’s ties with the U.S. are substantial, especially after it became the first African country to sign President Trumps ‘Board of Peace’ charter in early 2026. Legal & regulatory risk is considered to have remained at medium-high.

According to the IMF, GDP growth is forecast to keep its consistency at a robust 4.9% in 2026 before easing slightly to 4.5% in 2027. Growth has been supported by a rebound in the country’s agricultural output, as previous droughts restricted its potential, but also a surge in large-scale infrastructure projects and tourism. For example, the planned USD 25 bln Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline is expected to be signed this year supplying Morocco with a greater gas supply, while supporting exports into mainland Europe. The growth outlook, however, is somewhat dampened by the conflict in the Middle East, mainly through weaker global demand and a temporary rise in inflation driven largely by higher energy prices. Inflation is expected by the IMF to settle at 2% over the medium term, as Morocco’s central bank has maintained its policy rate of 2.25% in its latest meeting. Therefore, the risk of doing business is assessed at medium-low, while the government’s inability to provide stimulus is at medium. Lastly, sovereign non-payment risk remains medium-high due to the country’s high government debt to GDP. Although, a gradual reduction in debt to GDP is nevertheless apparent, with the IMF forecasting a decline to 60.5% by 2031.