Thailand Country Risk Rating

Thailand’s overall country risk rating has been maintained at medium-high. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul had seen success in a parliamentary vote in March 2026 that had confirmed his re-election, with the backing of 293 of parliament’s 499 total members. The first re-elected prime minister in two decades has potential to bring a period of stability in a turbulent Southeast Asian nation. Political violence maintains its high-risk rating, despite an unexpected meeting between Thailand’s and Cambodia’s leaders on, ‘trust-building measures’. U.S. President Trump’s first attempt to restore peace had fallen through, while the second required 20 days of violent altercations along the shared border in late 2025 before both sides agreed to a bilateral truce. Although measures are being taken to strengthen such a fragile ceasefire, troops continue to be deployed along both sides of the shared border. In terms of the development of foreign policy, advancements have been made regarding agreements in the supply of energy due to Thailand being significantly hit by the Middle Eastern conflict. Long-term agreements between the U.S and Thailand on LNG supply are currently under negotiation, following the critical damage to Qatari natural gas production. Malaysia is another LNG supplier Thailand has also turned to. In addition to diversifying its supply of LNG, Thailand has made movements towards the possibility of purchasing Russian crude oil, while currently gaining a majority of its supply from Angola and the United States. Political interference has been assessed at a medium rating, alongside a legal & regulatory risk rating that is interpreted to remain medium-high. In the IMF’s April 2026 outlook, Thailand’s GDP growth rate is forecast at 1.5% for 2026. This is supported by higher exports and rising investment – one example being the local unit of TikTok’s injection of a huge USD 25 bln for the expansion of digital infrastructure. In efforts to cushion the impact from the global energy crisis, the Thailand cabinet had approved an emergency decree authorizing a USD 12.2 bln borrowing plan to ease living costs, supporting growth. The IMF forecast inflation at 0.9% for 2026. The IMF project government debt to GDP to continue its upward trend, reaching a projected 66.8% in 2026 and 67.8% in 2027. Sovereign non-payment risk and exchange transfer both remain medium. Therefore, the risk of doing business has maintained its medium-low rating.