EUR/CHF, EUR/USD, EUR/SEK flows: Mkt cautious on Iran positives; CPI prints

Some positives in the endless churn of Iran news as Israel and Lebanon agree to implement ceasefire. Trump suggests ‘if it happens, it could happen over the weekend’ when it comes to a deal, though the market is taking such comments with a pinch of salt these days.

Oil is off around 1% and has backed off a couple of dollars from yesterday’s highs but still adopting a more cautious stance (Nymex front month around $95) after recent unstable developments. FX also largely adopting a defensive waiting posture, EUR/USD just off 1.16, USD/JPY just off 160 and only modest bounces from the recent higher beta daily movers(SEK,NZD).

That even with Swedish CPIF coming in above expectations at 1.5% (mkt 1.3%), but still below Riksbank thinking, EUR/SEK briefly off around 10 ticks but overall direction coming from the geopolitics.

Swiss CPI meanwhile comes in soft again at 0.2%m/m (mkt 0.3%), just 0.6%y/y. SNB has recently been more vocal in suggesting raised readiness to intervene to deal with overvaluation pressure due to the Middle East conflict, amplified while inflation is off target. Around 10tick blip for EUR/CHF. Quite a high bar for SNB to actually get involved of course but nonetheless CHF/JPY remains an interesting longer-term watch given competing central bank FX stances and its huge runup of the last 15 months.