USD,CAD flows: USD little changed on retail sales, CAD awaits BoC decision

No significant FX impact from US retail sales which came in marginally stronger than expected in March at 1.4% m/m, but still at quite a modest rate of 0.3% for the quarter. The March bounce may have reflected anticipation of tariffs, particularly in autos, with ex-autos only up 0.5% m/m. The USD remains quite steady with the BoC decision the next focus, with the market pricing a 25bp cut as around a 44% chance. We also lean against a cut, suggesting the chance of a small CAD rally on the news, with USD/CAD moving back below 1.39.