Kazakhstan Country Risk Rating

Kazakhstan’s overall risk score remains medium-high. The political interference and legal and regulatory risk levels are at medium-high. The country continues to be an autocratic state with elevated unemployment and corruption. President Tokayev remains powerful despite some concerns on the rule of law and women’s empowerment. International watchdog recently reported deep-rooted administrative hurdles and political corruption remain persistent challenges. Geopolitical uncertainties, sanctions over Russia economy and Ukraine war cause the risk of doing business and supply chain disruption risk to remain at medium level in Kazakhstan in this rating period. Even though the country is appearing to distance itself from Russia after the Ukraine conflict, Kazakhstan’s continued trade and FDI interdependence to Russia means the economy is still partly exposed to domestic movements in Russia. The underlying economy momentum is good, as the government tries to maintain growth momentum and fight against the elevated inflation. Kazakhstan's economy expanded by 3.0% y/y in Q1 fueled by growing construction, transport and trade sectors. The annual inflation rate slowed to 10.6% in April 2026 from 11% in March, marking its lowest reading since March 2025. The government is trying to fight against corruption and money laundering as it approved a comprehensive set of measures late 2025/early 2026 aimed at reducing the risks of money laundering, terrorist financing, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Despite high corruption, political concerns, and adverse global developments, the banking sector vulnerability is at medium-low level while the banking sector has systemic deficiencies that ensure poor scores for corruption and state intervention, financial regulation and supervision. Tied with this, the exchange transfer risk is at medium high. Sovereign non-payment risk remains at medium considering a fairly low public debt/GDP ratio (around 24% of GDP). While this ratio has ticked up slightly from previous years due to heightened domestic spending and quasi-fiscal operations, the state's sovereign risk is fundamentally mitigated by substantial net-creditor buffers, including liquid foreign exchange reserves and the extensive assets of the National Fund.