Jordan Country Risk Rating

Jordan remains medium overall, supported by institutional continuity but constrained by high debt and regional instability. Political violence, legal & regulatory risk and political interference are all medium-high, while supply-chain disruption is medium-low. King Abdullah II continues to preside over a comparatively stable political system, but the country remains exposed to instability in Israel and the Palestinian territories, Syria, Iraq and the wider Middle East. Public opinion is highly sensitive to developments in Gaza and regional conflict, while unemployment and living-cost pressures create persistent domestic frustration. Jordan’s security services and institutional continuity have contained large-scale unrest, but restrictions on political activity and the state’s extensive role in the economy support the medium-high governance ratings.

The IMF expects GDP growth of around 2.7% in 2026 and inflation of approximately 2.5%. Tourism, services and remittances provide support, but the U.S.-Iran conflict has raised fuel, food, freight and insurance costs and weakened regional travel. Jordan imports most of its energy, making a prolonged period of high oil prices particularly difficult. The current-account deficit is forecast at around 7.4% of GDP in 2026. The risk of doing business is medium, while banking-sector vulnerability is medium-low. Banks remain profitable and well capitalised, and the exchange-rate peg to the U.S. dollar continues to anchor monetary credibility. Sovereign non-payment risk, exchange transfer risk and the government’s inability to provide stimulus are all medium-high. Net public debt excluding the Social Security Corporation remains above 80% of GDP, and gross government and guaranteed debt is much higher, limiting fiscal flexibility. Jordan’s IMF Extended Fund Facility has remained broadly on track and foreign-exchange reserves cover around eight months of imports, reducing near-term liquidity risk. The country nevertheless remains dependent on grants, concessional finance and support from Gulf and Western partners. Jordan’s strong institutions and external backing offer some resilience, but high debt, regional security exposure and structural unemployment prevent a lower overall risk assessment.