USD flows: US data dump leaves dollar stalled
Overall, downside surprises out of the latest batch of data, further neutralises the minor o/n dollar bid
US2s pegged back though still more focused on Iran/oil
Data dump out the US, for once, seeing some net downside surprise on the real and price side overall, and seeing US2s trimmed back 2bp on the release. Sees the overnight mild dollar lift on Iran skirmishes further neutralised, though not a huge net impact. The fact the Apr core PCE data managed a downside surprise maybe the main ‘relief’, especially after some hawkish Fed comments overnight on responsiveness to inflation. US short end and dollar still overall taking more direction from the Iran/oil backdrop at present as the more forward-looking indicator. In terms of detail:
Personal income flat vs 0.4% expected, Mar revised to 0.5% from 0.6%, spending 0.5% as expected, prior month revised up 0.1pp. Apr core PCE 0.2% vs mkt 0.3%. Durable goods high on the headline at +7.9% vs mkt 3.5%, but nondefense ex-aircraft -1.1% vs mkt +0.4%. Q1 core PCE price index +4.4% vs advanced +4.3%, with GDP 1.6% vs advanced 2%, final sales 1.5% vs mkt 1.7%.