Tanzania Country Risk Rating

Tanzania remains rated medium-high overall, with the political fallout from the disputed 2025 election continuing to weigh on the outlook. Political interference is rated high and the risk of doing business is very high, while legal & regulatory risk is medium-high. Political violence is rated medium, although political tensions remain significant following the disputed October 2025 election. President Samia Suluhu Hassan was returned to office with an overwhelming reported majority after leading opposition figures were excluded, and the subsequent crackdown on protests drew heavy international criticism. A government inquiry has since acknowledged that at least 518 people died during the unrest. In August 2026, Vice President Emmanuel Nchimbi resigned, adding another element of uncertainty to the political environment. Restrictions on opposition activity, media and civil society continue to undermine institutional confidence even though large-scale unrest has eased.

The economic picture is more positive. The IMF estimates growth of around 5.9% in 2026, with medium-term growth potentially rising above 6% as mining, tourism, agriculture, logistics and infrastructure investment expand. Inflation was around 4% in June, although higher fuel and fertiliser costs linked to the Middle East conflict are creating renewed pressure. Supply-chain disruption is rated medium, reflecting Tanzania’s Indian Ocean access and regional trade role but also persistent infrastructure gaps and dependence on imported fuel. The risk of doing business remains very high because of inconsistent tax administration, local-content requirements, bureaucratic delays, foreign-exchange shortages and uncertainty over regulatory enforcement. Sovereign non-payment risk is medium-high, exchange transfer risk is medium and the government’s inability to provide stimulus is medium. Public debt remains manageable, but revenue mobilisation is relatively weak and the political fallout from the election could complicate access to concessional finance. Banking-sector vulnerability is medium-low, supported by adequate capitalisation and growing financial inclusion. Continued investment in rail, ports, mining and energy could strengthen Tanzania’s long-term outlook, but a durable improvement in country risk will depend on restoring political legitimacy, improving regulatory predictability and ensuring that rapid growth translates into broader gains for households.