Tunisia Country Risk Rating

Tunisia remains rated medium-high overall, with political centralisation and constrained external financing continuing to weigh on the outlook. Political violence, legal & regulatory risk and political interference are all medium-high. President Kais Saied has continued to centralise power following the weakening of parliament, the judiciary and independent institutions, while opposition politicians, journalists and civil-society figures have faced arrests and prosecution. In August, hundreds of demonstrators again called for Saied’s resignation and the restoration of democratic institutions, with economic frustration increasingly reinforcing political grievances. Shortages of water and medicines, unemployment and pressure on household incomes continue to fuel dissatisfaction. The legal and regulatory environment remains unpredictable, particularly where political or state-linked interests are involved.

The IMF projects GDP growth of around 2.1% in 2026 and average inflation of approximately 6.5%. Tourism and agriculture provide support, but investment remains weak and Tunisia is highly exposed to energy prices because it imports a substantial share of its fuel. The Middle East conflict has therefore worsened inflation and external-financing pressure. Supply-chain disruption is rated medium and the risk of doing business is medium. Sovereign non-payment risk remains medium-high, while exchange transfer risk and the government’s inability to provide stimulus have both moved from medium-high to high. Tunisia remains largely cut off from a full IMF programme and relies heavily on domestic banks and bilateral or multilateral financing. Public-sector wages and subsidies limit fiscal flexibility, while foreign-exchange reserves remain adequate but vulnerable to a deterioration in tourism receipts or energy imports. Banking-sector vulnerability is rated medium. In August, cash circulating outside the formal banking system reached a record level, highlighting weak financial intermediation and public distrust. Tougher cheque rules and limited digital-payment adoption have also contributed to liquidity pressures. Tunisia has avoided a sovereign default, but financing requirements remain substantial and the state’s increasing reliance on domestic banks raises the risk of crowding out the private sector. Modest growth and tourism receipts provide some support, but political centralisation, weak investment and constrained external financing keep the risk profile firmly at medium-high.