• The cyclical economic picture and central bank Outlook are dominated by when the Straits of Hormuz reopen and what the trajectory will be for energy prices. However, the starting cyclical position differs from 2022 in terms of domestic demand/labor market tightening and fiscal policy in a number of key countries, which means divergent economic and policy implications.

• Structural forces are not to be overlooked. AI investment is boosting the U.S. and part of Asia, while AI labs revenue is starting to take off and sustain the story into 2027. For the economy this has boosted CAPEX investment, but will it have no or moderate aggregate impact on unemployment in the next 1-2 years.

• For financial markets, U.S. equities are driven by tech but with divergence among rich households and low to middle that is struggling will this impact non tech? Elsewhere, corporate earnings are good in 2026, but will the Iran war and energy impact? Meanwhile, will government bond yields remain elevated but controlled or could growing debt burdens cause steeper yield curves? Finally, what are the prospects for the USD?

Continuum Economics’ June Outlook will assess these key issues. To hear our latest 2026 and new 2027 forecasts, please join our Outlook Webinar on June 26, 2026.