Chart NOK/SEK Update: Break to fresh year high not sustained
Cautious trade within the 1.0380 - 1.0500 multi-week range has given way to a break higher
| Levels | Imp | Comment | Levels | Imp | Comment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R4 | 1.0655 | ** | 76.4% ret of 2022-2025 fall | S1 | 1.0380 | * | range lows | |
| R3 | 1.0600 | * | historic congestion | S2 | 1.0200 | ** | congestion | |
| R2 | 1.0558 | * | 14 Oct YTD high | S3 | 1.0100 | * | congestion | |
| R1 | 1.0500 | * | congestion, break level | S4 | 1.0000 | * | parity, congestion |
Asterisk denotes strength of level
11:30 BST - Cautious trade within the 1.0380 - 1.0500 multi-week range has given way to a break higher, with prices posting a fresh year high at 1.0558 before settling back into consolidation beneath 1.0500. Daily stochastics are turning down, and the positive daily Tension Indicator is flattening, suggesting room for a drift lower in the coming sessions towards support at 1.0380 range lows. But mixed/positive weekly charts and positive longer-term readings suggest any immediate tests could give way to fresh consolidation. A close beneath here, however, will add weight to sentiment and complete a distribution top, as a deeper retracement then focuses on congestion support at 1.0200.
Meanwhile, a close above 1.0500 would help to improve sentiment and prompt extension of broad April 2025 gains beyond the 1.0558 current year high of 14 October towards the 1.0655 Fibonacci retracement. Already overbought weekly stochastics should limit any initial tests in profit-taking/consolidation.