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May 20, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 21st
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

Canadian CPI risks slightly on the downside
USD/CAD risks consequently on the upside
CHF and JPY under pressure, CHF the preferred funding currency
GBP gains to fade ahead of UK CPI

North American Summary and Highlights 20 May
Freemium Article

May 20, 2024 7:46 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw gains versus the EUR in Europe and the JPY in North America in a day with no significant economic data.  

Preview: Due May 31 - Canada Q1/March GDP - A stronger quarter assisted by the end of strikes
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 3:52 PM UTC

We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to rise by 2.0% annualized, a little above a 1.5% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s April Monetary Policy Report. We expect an unchanged monthly total for March, with Q1’s growth inflated by a January rebound from a strike-depressed Q4.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 21st
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 3:06 PM UTC

Canadian CPI risks slightly on the downside
USD/CAD risks consequently on the upside
CHF and JPY under pressure, CHF the preferred funding currency
GBP gains to fade ahead of UK CPI

...
Mexico: Exports Loosing Traction
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 2:38 PM UTC

At the beginning of the year, Mexico's exports are losing traction, stagnating as imports surpass exports. This could be due to adjustments to U.S. demand and inflation effects. With internal demand cooling and the U.S. economy decelerating, growth may shift to Mexico’s internal economy, bolstered

Preview: Due May 21 - Canada April CPI - Headline stable but core rates falling
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 12:15 PM UTC

April CPI will be closely watched as the last CPI release before the June 5 Bank of Canada meeting. We expect the yr/yr pace to be unchanged at March's 2.9% pace which was also the pace in January before February saw a brief dip to 2.8%. However we expect continued steady downward progress in the Bo

European Summary and Highlights 20 May
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 10:33 AM UTC

EUR/USD lost around 15 pips to 1.0870 in a quiet European morning.

Psychology for major markets May 20th
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

EUR/CHF hitting new 1 year highs. USD steady

FX Weekly Strategy: May 20th-24th
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 8:55 AM UTC

USD to focus on PMIs after recent relative US weakness
JPY still has the most scope for gains
GBP upside limited as big drop in CPI expected
CAD may soften as CPI could allow BoC rate cut

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Fresh high approaching the 0.9900 Fibonacci level
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 7:56 AM UTC

Still stretching and break above the .9835/50 high see the .9900 level now within reach

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating at .8550 support, scope for break
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 7:29 AM UTC

Turned up from the .8550 congestion to consolidate losses from the .8620 high 

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e May 14th
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 7:20 AM UTC

CHF net short positioning stands out

JPY, USD, CHF, EUR flows: JPY soft, EUR pressing 1.09
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

JPY and CHF weak in quiet conditions, EUR/JPY highest since intervention

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating at 1.3590 support, scope for break
Freemium Article

May 20, 2024 6:38 AM UTC

Little change, as prices remains in consolidation above strong support at the 1.3590 Fibonacci retracement

Chart USD/CHF Update: Extending bounce from the .9000 congestion
Freemium Article

May 20, 2024 6:02 AM UTC

Rebound at the .9000 congestion see pressure returning to the .9100 level as prices retrace losses from the .9224, 1st May YTD high

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending gains, scope to 7.2470/7.2500 resistance
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 4:42 AM UTC

Break above resistance at the 7.2340 high of February extending gains from the 7.2040 low of last week

Asia Summary and Highlights 20 May
Freemium Article

May 20, 2024 4:29 AM UTC

Iran confirmed president Ebrahim Raisi and Minister of Foreign Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian died in helicopter crash
China’s LPR unchaged at 3.45% for 1yr and 3.95% for 5yr 

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, May 20th-24th
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 4:24 AM UTC

USD to focus on PMIs after recent relative US weakness
JPY still has the most scope for gains
GBP upside limited as big drop in CPI expected
CAD may soften as CPI could allow BoC rate cut

AUD/USD flows: China's LPR Unchanged
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 4:17 AM UTC

China’s LPR unchaged at 3.45% for 1yr and 3.95% for 5yr 

USD/JPY flows: Market focus on Iranian Helicopter Crash
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 3:52 AM UTC

Iran confirmed president Ebrahim Raisi and Minister of Foreign Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian died in helicopter crash

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Consolidating, bounce seen limited
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 3:04 AM UTC

Steadied at the 15914 low and bounce here see prices consolidating losses from the 16132 high 

Chart USD/THB Update: Weighing on the 36.04 Fibonacci level
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 2:57 AM UTC

 Still heavy and consolidation above the 36.04, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, see risk for break to further extend losses from the May YTD high at 37.25

Chart USD/KRW Update: Room to extend corrective bounce from 1343.00 support
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 2:38 AM UTC

 Higher in consolidation from the 1343.00 support and regaining the 1350.00 level opens up stronger bounce

Chart USD/SGD Update: Limited corrective bounce from 1.3420 low
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 2:28 AM UTC

Turned up from the 1.3415 support to consolidate at the 1.3450 congestion 

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Turned up in consolidation from the 104.25/00 support
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 2:12 AM UTC

Turned up from the 104.25/00 support area to consolidate at the 104.50 congestion

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating at the 1.2700/10 resistance
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 1:47 AM UTC

Pressuring the 1.2700/10 resistance but overbought intraday studies keeping gains in check

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending consolidation below 1.0900 level
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 1:12 AM UTC

Remains in consolidation below the 1.0900 level 

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending gains, room to 170.00 level
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 12:56 AM UTC

Extending rebound from the 167.33 low to retest the 169.40 resistance

Chart USD/JPY Update: Remains in consolidation below 156.00 level
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 12:37 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the 156.00 level

Chart AUD/USD Update: Pressuring .6700/15 resistance, scope for break
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 12:08 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the upside following bounce from the .6650 support 

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback recoup partial post CPI losses. KRW saw the largest losses of 0.74%, followed by TWD 0.32%, PHP 0.25%, IDR 0.19%, THB 0.18%, CNH 0.15%, MYR 0.1%, CNY 0.04% and HKD 0.01%; the biggest winners are INR 0.20% and SGD 0.07%

May 19, 2024

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, May 20th-24th
Paying Article

May 19, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

USD to focus on PMIs after recent relative US weakness
JPY still has the most scope for gains
GBP upside limited as big drop in CPI expected
CAD may soften as CPI could allow BoC rate cut

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, May 20th-24th
Paying Article

May 19, 2024 5:00 PM UTC

USD to focus on PMIs after recent relative US weakness
JPY still has the most scope for gains
GBP upside limited as big drop in CPI expected
CAD may soften as CPI could allow BoC rate cut

May 17, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 17 May
Freemium Article

May 17, 2024 7:37 PM UTC

Overview - The USD advanced in Europe but moved lower in North America in a day with little fresh news.  

Chart USD/MXN Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 3:23 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a drift lower

FX Weekly Strategy: May 20th-24th
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 3:18 PM UTC

USD to focus on PMIs after recent relative US weakness
JPY still has the most scope for gains
GBP upside limited as big drop in CPI expected
CAD may soften as CPI could allow BoC rate cut

Chart USD/CAD Update: Balanced at 1.3590/00 - studies leaning lower
Freemium Article

May 17, 2024 3:14 PM UTC

Still little change

Chart AUD/USD Update: Positive background studies to limit downside tests
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 1:46 PM UTC

The anticipated test of support within the 0.6650/68 area is giving way to fresh consolidation

Chart USD/JPY Update: Further gains to remain limited
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

Intraday gains have met anticipated selling interest just beneath congestion resistance at 156.00

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 1:15 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 104.50 has given way to a break to 104.80

Preview: Due May 30 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit trending higher
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

We expect April’s advance goods trade deficit to sustain a slowly deteriorating trend, with the deficit rising to $93.0bn from $90.5bn, reaching its highest level since April 2023.

Chart USD/TRY Update: Extending consolidation - background studies under pressure
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 12:14 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at the 32.4000 break level

Chart USD/RUB Update: Consolidating - background studies leaning lower
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 11:39 AM UTC

Little change, as flattening oversold daily stochastics prompt further cautious trade around congestion support at 91.0000

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Further consolidation - background studies under pressure
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 11:16 AM UTC

Still little change, as rising intraday studies and flattening oversold daily stochastics keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Limited corrective gains - background studies remain under pressure
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 10:57 AM UTC

The break below 18.2500 has met buying interest just above critical support at 18.1000/70

European Summary and Highlights 17 May
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 10:46 AM UTC

The USD was generally firmer through the European morning, with EUR/USD losing around 15 pips to 1.0845, USD/CAD rising 15 pips to 1.3640 and AUD/USD slipping 10 pips to 0.6655. 

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating gains - background studies remain positive
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 10:27 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade following the test of resistance at the 1.4820 Fibonacci retracement

Psychology for major markets May 17th
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 10:10 AM UTC

Underlying USD tone remains a little negative as yields edge lower, despite modest rally today. EUR/CHF hitting new 1 year highs