Global Outlook - Navigating U.S. Tightening, European Energy Crisis and China COVID
Inflation pressures are peaking in certain countries, as post-COVID pent-up demand and supply chain pressures ease. However, second-round feedthrough risks remain to wage inflation and to inflation expectations, especially with lingering energy and food price impact from the Ukraine war — an early peace deal is unlikely.
DM central bank tightening will not swing quickly to easing, with central banks seeking to get inflation back to target. Combined with the energy price shock to real incomes, this means that economic slowdowns turn into technical recessions in EZ and UK and then the U.S. Added to the lagged impact of high global commodity prices, plus still-challenged China growth, the global economy faces a difficult period.
Continuum Economics' September Outlook will look at these key issues. Across the 23 countries that we cover, inflation forces and central bank policy normalization are projected to differ, and our forecasts will help guide you through this divergence.
What will all this mean for our economic, policy and financial market forecasts? To hear our latest 2022 and 2023 views, please join our Outlook Webinar on Sept. 29.