DM central bank tightening cycles are approaching a mature stage, as some inflation forces ebb and certain economies slip into recession. The EZ/UK recession will start in 2022 and we look for a mild U.S. recession in 2023. How long will the recessions last and what will the eventual recovery look like? What will happen to inflation through 2023 and 2024 and will DM central banks be able to get close to inflation targets eventually.
What will happen with EM tightening cycles and can they anchor long-term inflation and through the lagged effects of tightening help to lower the inflation trajectory. What will this mean for EM currencies and financial markets?
Continuum Economics' December Outlook will look at these key issues. Across the 23 countries that we cover, inflation forces and central bank policy are projected to differ, and our forecasts will help guide you through this divergence.
What will all this mean for our economic, policy and financial market forecasts? To hear our latest 2023 forecasts and new 2024 projections, please join our Outlook Webinar on December 20.