Inflation will be a bigger issue than GDP growth in 2022. Whether the inflation pickup is transitory or more persistent will become clearer in 2022, and our economists are looking closely at underlying indicators including wage inflation, unit labor costs and long-term inflation expectations. Headline GDP growth numbers are forecast to be less divergent globally, though we are downbeat on LatAm. However, quarterly growth momentum will slow and in some cases toward trend growth.
This is why we also unveil our 2023 GDP growth and inflation projections, both to help you understand how the economic expansion will develop and also as central banks will be looking at 2023 forecasts in setting policy in 2022.
The Omicron COVID variant also shows that the COVID pandemic is not yet over and will have an impact on economic and policy issues.
Across the 20 countries that we cover, inflation forces and central bank policy normalization are projected to diverge, and our forecasts will help guide you through this split.
Risky financial markets have discounted a lot of the economic good news, while real bond yields remain low by historical standards. This makes for a trickier environment for asset allocation over the next 12 to 24 months, and we shall provide our latest key market and asset allocation views.