The critical question facing decision-makers and markets is whether we will see a second major COVID-19 pandemic wave given the severe economic impact. Our central scenario is that there will not be a second major outbreak thanks to “test, track and trace”, as well as a gradual easing of lockdowns. However, the alternative of further major pandemic waves is a high 35% probability.
Key questions also exist over the different prospects for production and consumption, as the global economy climbs back. The scale and timing of additional fiscal and monetary policy measures also vary across the 32 countries we cover, due to the already massive policy stimulation seen since March.
The June Outlook will also look at the impact of November’s U.S. presidential election and U.S./China tensions on the global economy and markets.
What will all this mean for our economic, policy and financial market forecasts?
To hear our latest 2020 and 2021 views, please join our Outlook Webinar on June 16.