2019 Global Outlook - Running Into Headwinds
Please join our conference call where our team of senior country economists and strategists discuss our Q2 Global Outlook.
- Concerns over a sharper slowdown in U.S., China and European growth have gripped market attention over the past few months. Headwinds from high debt/GDP ratios are a constraint for a number of countries, while debt servicing ratios have risen in the U.S. Globalization has also seen a setback, even if the U.S. and China reach a trade deal.
- However, we maintain that the slowing of growth is modest. The underlying pace will be reasonable, helped by renewed China policy stimulation; the Fed pausing and the decline in oil prices since autumn 2018. A peak in USD, plus the beneficial short-term impact of oil prices on inflation, will be enough to relieve tightening pressures outside the U.S. and, in some cases, to allow mini-easing cycles.
- What will all this mean for our economic policy and financial market forecasts? To hear our latest 2019 and 2020 views, please join our Outlook Conference Call on March 11.