In 2020, U.S./China trade, whether the global economy can navigate a soft landing and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election will be the key points of focus. A combination of follow-through momentum from global consumer, good financial market confidence and the lagged impact of H2 2019 policy stimulation helps. Nevertheless, China continues to go through a re-balance and will not prompt a 2009- or 2016-style rebound in the global economy. Our latest Outlook will look at the impact of these forces on our 2020 and 2021 forecasts.
The 2020's also herald a New Dawn. It’s a decade that will be impacted by climate change (including melting ice packs, rising sea levels and desertification) and the fourth technology wave (5G, AI, Big Data and Robotics). These structural forces move more slowly than the cyclical picture, but are important long-term influences on economies, policy and financial markets.
What will all this mean for our economic, policy and financial market forecasts? Join us at our Outlook Webinar on December 9 to hear our latest 2020 and 2021 views.