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May 12, 2025
Trump Tariffs: China and UK Precedents
May 12, 2025 8:02 AM UTC
The U.S./China have announced major reductions in reciprocal tariffs to 10% with other measures postponed for 90 days. Though the U.S. is still imposing an extra 20% due to fentanyl, China will likely make some moves that could also help to reduce this. This is in line with our previous thinki
Ceasefire or Reset? India Redraws the Rules
May 12, 2025 6:05 AM UTC
India and Pakistan have entered a fragile ceasefire after a week of precision strikes, drone warfare, and missile exchanges. But New Delhi’s clear message—that future terror attacks will be treated as acts of war—marks a strategic shift. Deterrence in South Asia has a new author, and India is
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
May 12, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
Most EM currencies are trading individually against the greenback as Trump's comment towards weekend China-U.S. talk supported risk sentiment in the NA session. The largest loser is THB by 0.55%, followed by MYR 0.43%, IDR 0.12%, HKD 0.06% and TWD 0.04%; while the biggest winner is KRW
May 11, 2025
May 09, 2025
Preview: Due May 23 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Correction lower within a stable trend
May 9, 2025 4:47 PM UTC
We expect an April new home sales level of 695k, which would be a 4.0% decline if March’s surprisingly strong 7.4% increase to 724k is unrevised. March’s level was near the tip of the recent range but underlying trend continues to have little direction, suggesting a dip in April is likely.
Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest a rise
May 9, 2025 3:47 PM UTC
We expect April existing home sales to rise by 4.5% to 4.20m, which would not fully erase a 5.9% decline seen in March. Sales would then be up 2.9% on a yr/yr basis, after two straight negatives.
Preview: Due May 20 - Canada April CPI - To fall, but only on removal of carbon tax
May 9, 2025 2:09 PM UTC
We expect April Canadian CPI to fall to 1.6% yr/yr from 2.3% with the fall entirely due to the April 1 removal of a carbon tax which the Bank of Canada estimates will reduce inflation by 0.7%, largely in gasoline. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from March.
A Windfall with Caveats: RBI’s Likely Record Dividend
May 9, 2025 2:00 PM UTC
India is set to receive a record INR 3–3.5tn dividend from the RBI, offering a fiscal cushion amid softening tax revenues and rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. While this windfall may help the government stick to its 4.4% fiscal deficit target for FY26, it also highlights India’s growi