The Q3 Employment Cost Index with a 1.1% increase is slightly stronger than expected, and an unexpected acceleration from Q2’s 1.0%, and if off the high of 1.4% seen in Q1 2022, still shows a tight labor market generating significant inflationary pressures.
Details show wages and salaries up by 1.2%, up from 1.0% in Q2 and back to the pace seen in Q1 and Q4 2022. While payroll average hourly earnings did show signs of slowing in Q3, this data does not. Benefit costs rose by 0.9%, machining Q2’s pace which was the softest since Q3 2021.
We have now seen nine straight quarters of 1.0% or above. Before these quarters the last quarter to reach 1.0% was back in Q3 2006. Yr/yr growth of 4.4% seasonally adjusted from 4.5% is off the recent high of 5.1% but well above a pre-pandemic trend that was running on the low side of 3.0%. The yr/yr pace is 4.3% before seasonal adjustment.