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Scenario Analysis March 25, 2021 / 03:04 pm UTC

$88 WTI on Soft Supply and Stronger EM Recovery

By Grant Hixon, Mike Gallagher, Sarah Colgan
Our scenario finds that a sustained $20 increase in WTI lowers global GDP growth by 0.2ppt, using the NiGEM macro model. This will also lift headline inflation and threaten to destabilize inflation expectations.