- US initial claims rose to 885k from 862k vs 818k exp.
- US Dec Philly Fed fell to 11.1 from 26.3 vs 20.0 exp.
- US Nov housing starts +1.2% to 1547k vs 1535k exp, permits +6.2% to 1639k vs 1560k exp.
USD declined through Thursday’s session, with the considered view on the FOMC being that the Fed are promising QE at the current pace for longer.This is seen as risk positive and helps add to the bullishness on equity prices and is hurting the USD across the board. EUR/USD broke through 1.2250, while the move for the DXY below 90 also fueled bearish USD sentiment.
USD/JPY is also being watched closely, with negative USD sentiment being more important than any risk positive adverse effects on the JPY.There was little FX reaction to a rise in US initial claims though it did send UST yields lower, which may have helped extend USD/JPY losses through 103. As UST yields reversed the dip and more, with traders seeing a fiscal deal as close, USD/JPY edged off the lows, as did USD/CAD, though EUR/USD and GBP/USD remained firm.
While GBP/USD moved above 1.36 this was mainly a USD move. EUR/GBP consolidated near .90 with press reports suggesting that the EU/UK trade negotiations are now down to fishing rights but that negotiations are still tough. The GBP saw late slippage after UK PM Johnson, after speaking with the EU’s von der Leyen, said the talks were in a serious situation and the EU position on fisheries was unreasonable.
Still to come
ALL DAY - JP: BoJ Policy Balance Rate (Dec 18th) 4cast: -0.1% (Mkt: -0.1 Prev: -0.1)
ALL DAY - JP: BoJ 10y Yield Target (Dec 18th) 4cast: 0% (Mkt: 0 Prev: 0)
00:01 GMT - UK: GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec) (Mkt: -33 Prev: -31)
07:00 GMT - DE: PPI (Nov) % y/y (Mkt: -0.6 Prev: -0.7)
07:00 GMT - DE: PPI (Nov) % m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: 0.1)
07:00 GMT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Nov) % y/y (Mkt: 4.1 Prev: 7.8)
07:00 GMT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Nov) % m/m (Mkt: -4.2 Prev: 1.2)
07:00 GMT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Nov) % m/m (Mkt: -4 Prev: 1.3)
07:00 GMT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Nov) % y/y (Mkt: 2.4 Prev: 5.8)
09:00 GMT - EU: Current Account (sa) (Oct) EUR bn (Prev: 25.2)
09:30 GMT - IT: Current Account Balance (Oct) EUR mn (Prev: 7642)
13:30 GMT - CA: Retail Sales (Oct) % m/m (Mkt: 0 Prev: 1.1)
13:30 GMT - CA: Retail Sales Ex Auto (Oct) % m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: 1)
13:30 GMT - US: Current Account (Q3) $ bn (Mkt: -187 Prev: -170.5)
15:00 GMT - US: Leading Indicator (Nov) % m/m (Mkt: 0.5 Prev: 0.7)