Moderna orders are clustered in rich DM countries, led by the U.S with 100m and Europe in negotiations for 75m. As with the Pfizer vaccine, it requires ultra-cold chain storage, which centers rollout on DM countries. More importantly, UK government scientists suggest optimism on the Oxford University/AstraZeneca, which is low cost and can be stored in normal cold chain at 2-8c.
For the global economy this allow broader distribution, especially as EM countries have orders for this vaccine and up to 2.0bln can be produced in 2021. COVAX has ordered 300mln to start for 92 LDC countries. COVAX is also securing production capacity for a further 1bln doses, while major pharma companies have pledged to help global access to COVID vaccines. Distribution would take most of 2021, but the most vulnerable could be vaccinated in these countries.
Even so, major EM countries orders for vaccines are lower than DM countries. China, Russia and now India have local candidates for vaccines leaving Brazil and South Africa lagging. Additionally, healthcare systems in EM economies are not as organized as DM countries, which will likely cause logistical issues and delays in rollouts.
We would still make the assessment that vaccine rollout will impact countries at three different speeds: COVID control countries quickest (e.g. Germany/South Korea); then countries with political challenges (e.g. U.S./Brazil); and select EM countries with logistic issues (e.g. India and Indonesia). This is already incorporated in our 2021 forecasts, which we will revise with the December 7 Outlook.