Macro August 27, 2020 / 11:26 am UTC

Preview: Due September 4 - Germany July Factory Orders

By Giacomo Pallaro

We believe new orders to German manufacturers increased by 4.8% m/m in July, which would bring the level of new orders to just under 6% below that from July 2019. This print would represent a strong improvement since the -37% y/y posted in April.

Growth in overall factory orders is set to come from both domestic sources (we expect to see 2.4% m/m growth for the month after the strong 35.3% m/m print in June) and abroad (we believe foreign orders rose by 7% m/m in July). The forecast for foreign orders reflects the additional scope for growth according to the export expectations captured in the Ifo survey.

Looking at new orders by the types of goods manufactured, we see intermediate goods to show stable 10% m/m growth in July, a similar increase to June's. After two strong months in May and June, when orders rose by 20.3% m/m and 45.7% m/m, respectively, capital goods demand probably rose more modestly in July. New orders of consumer goods were probably flat compared to June.

Looking ahead, we expect factory orders to steadily grow back to normal levels throughout H2.

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I, Giacomo Pallaro, the lead analyst certify that the views expressed herein are mine and are clear, fair and not misleading at the time of publication. They have not been influenced by any relationship, either a personal relationship of mine or a relationship of the firm, to any entity described or referred to herein nor to any client of Continuum Economics nor has any inducement been received in relation to those views. I further certify that in the preparation and publication of this report I have at all times followed all relevant Continuum Economics compliance protocols including those reasonably seeking to prevent the receipt or misuse of material non-public information.