Mexico's trade balance for May surprised on the downside, coming in at –$3.5 billion. The surprise was that imports fell less than expected, which suggests Mexico replenished some intermediate and capital goods in May on expectations of the economy re-opening in June. However, the re-opening did not happen and exports will continue to drop, which will lead to a larger fall in imports, as inventories are already stocked up.
The print underlines the strong interrelation between imports and exports, and the market hopes for a quick resumption of economic activities, with the industry in the U.S. driving a rebound. However, the pressure to re-open the economy looks like it could backfire.