Brazil's retail sales for January surprised on the downside, showing a slower recovery in demand even before the coronavirus pandemic broke out. The narrow measure came in at -1.0% m/m and 1.3% y/y, with a large downward revision to the seasonally adjusted series. The broad measure, which includes vehicles and construction material, came at 0.6% m/m and 3.5% y/y. The broad measure, which is the one that is used for the GDP estimate, suggests that our proxy GDP estimate at 0.2%m/m and 1.2%y/y may end up at the high end of expectations. January's disappointing print will likely boost the odds for additional monetary easing.