The scale of our forecasted decline would be similar to that seen in the Markit Services PMI, though the level on the Markit PMI result will be weaker than the ISM data, which is usually the case. The scale of social distancing varies by region, as exhibited in a more resilient Richmond Fed services survey compared to the collapse in the Philadelphia Fed print, but even the former slowed sharply from February.
We expect to see a very weak 40.0 index for both new orders and production, as well as a weak employment number, albeit less so, at 45.0. However, delivery times may be inflated, with a modest rise to 53.0 from 52.4. We expect prices paid, which is not a contributor to the composite, to slip to 45.0 from 50.8 due to the plunge in oil prices.