Macro October 16, 2019 / 09:27 am UTC

Preview: Due October 24 - October Eurozone PMIs to Rebound Slightly

By Giacomo Pallaro

We expect the Eurozone (EZ) composite PMI to correct higher in October to 50.8 after the sharp fall in September to 50.1, which came from a decline in both services and manufacturing.


The moderate increase we expect in the October composite PMI reflects an anticipated improvement in both sectors, with the manufacturing PMI set to rise to 46.2 from 45.7 in September, and services PMI projected at 52.2 from 51.6 in the prior month.

Following the large difference between services and manufacturing that was recorded back in July, the gap between the two indicators has declined, as the services PMI dropped by more than manufacturing over the course of August and September. This is causing greater concern that services will become increasingly less immune to the weakness in manufacturing, with downside risks to the overall economy, something that ought to attract the attention of EZ governments.

4Cast Ltd. and all of its affiliates (Continuum Economics) do not conduct “investment research” as defined in the FCA Conduct of Business Sourcebook (COBS) section 12 nor do they provide “advice about securities” as defined in the Regulation of Investment Advisors by the U.S. SEC. Continuum Economics is not regulated by the SEC or by the FCA or by any other regulatory body. This research report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Nonetheless, Continuum Economics has an internal policy that prohibits “front-running” and that is designed to minimize the risk of receiving or misusing confidential or potentially material non-public information. The views and conclusions expressed here may be changed without notice. Continuum Economics, its partners and employees make no representation about the completeness or accuracy of the data, calculations, information or opinions contained in this report. This report may not be copied, redistributed or reproduced in part or whole without Continuum Economics’s express permission. Information contained in this report or relied upon in its construction may previously have been disclosed under a consulting agreement with one or more clients. The prices of securities referred to in the report may rise or fall and past performance and forecasts should not be treated as a reliable indicator of future performance or results. This report is not directed to you if Continuum Economics is barred from doing so in your jurisdiction. Nor is it an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or to enter into any investment transaction or use any investment service.
Analyst Certification
I, Giacomo Pallaro, the lead analyst certify that the views expressed herein are mine and are clear, fair and not misleading at the time of publication. They have not been influenced by any relationship, either a personal relationship of mine or a relationship of the firm, to any entity described or referred to herein nor to any client of Continuum Economics nor has any inducement been received in relation to those views. I further certify that in the preparation and publication of this report I have at all times followed all relevant Continuum Economics compliance protocols including those reasonably seeking to prevent the receipt or misuse of material non-public information.