Scenario Analysis July 19, 2019 / 01:33 pm UTC
UK: Politics on the Brexit Knife-Edge
On July 23, Boris Johnson will probably be named as the UK’s third PM in just over three years. His party election campaign has been dominated by promises that he would be willing to allow the UK to exit the EU without any deal, but we still believe a no-deal Brexit is unlikely, although the probability is now up to 30%. A fresh general election is more likely.