With the data calendar quiet, US eyes will be on Wednesday's FOMC statement. No change in rates looks certain, though the dots will be closely watched. We expect them to show only 1 hike in 2019 rather than 2, and only one more in 2020, leaving the end-2020 rate also 25bps below where it was seen in Dec. GDP forecasts should also get a trim, though the statement is likely to see weakness as temporary. The forward-looking assessment of the economy should see no changes from Dec, with sustained economic expansion and inflation near target as the most likely outcomes, but patience on rates.
Monday sees Mar's NAHB homebuilders' survey, and Tuesday Jan factory orders. Thursday will have weekly jobless for Mar's payroll survey week, Mar's Philly Fed manufacturing survey, and Feb's leading indicator. On Friday we expect Feb existing home sales to rise by 2.2% to 5.05m. Mar Markit PMI, Jan wholesale and Feb budget data are also due.