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Outlook December 06, 2018 / 09:26 pm UTC

Latin America Outlook: Uncertainty Is the Only Certainty

By Pedro Tuesta, Priscila Robledo
Latin America’s recovery will likely pick up steam in 2019, but there are many risks of disappointment. Fed tightening and the U.S./China trade war bring external headwinds; meanwhile, populism and structural imbalances bring domestic headwinds. Argentina and Mexico face particularly high risk levels, while Venezuela’s protracted collapse has no end in sight. Brazil’s upside is considerable but so is the downside, leading to a neutral scenario. Meanwhile, Chile has made the most of relatively favorable terms of trade and monetary expansion.